星期二, 11月 24, 2009

iProperty.com收購台灣最大房地產銷售網站-網路地產王

iProperty.com收購台灣最大房地產銷售網站-網路地產王 2008 / 09 / 04


iProperty.com 集團收購台灣網路地產王股份有限公司Info-portal Tech Int'l Co Ltd 的股份,成為大股東。網路地產王股份擁有台灣最大的房地產銷售網站 --網路地產王VRHouse.com.tw (www.vrhouse.com.tw)。


《香港文匯報》報導,網路地產王是台灣目前最大的房地產線上網站,這是以網站瀏覽的人數、合作的房地產開發商數量,以及營業收益來統計的。總公司 Info-Portal Tech Int'l Co Ltd 位於台北,所有的網站介面都使用中文。根據統計,每個月有超過22.5萬人次瀏覽和使用網路地產王的房地產列表和服務。

iProperty.com 集團執行主席 Patrick Grove對於這次的合作方案感到雀躍萬分。他希望憑著香港、新加坡、馬來西亞和菲律賓分公司的豐富經驗,為網路地產王達到增值的效果。他非常期待與網路地產王的創業團隊一起合作,進一步主導台灣市場和擴大涵蓋的區域。

Grove 對於收購台灣第一大房地產銷售網站表示很滿意,由此一來,每個月有超過 1億人次瀏覽 iProperty.com的區域性網站和列表。該集團計劃將網路地產王定位成為 iProperty.com推動中國大陸投資台灣房地產的關鍵媒介,並希望在兩岸政局穩定的情況下,加強與中國大陸之間的聯繫,進而引起大陸投資台灣房地產的興趣。

網路地產王董事長鄭弘傑表示,與 iProperty.com 的合作方案充滿了期待,並相信來自 iProperty.com的豐富資源和多年累積的經驗,不但可以讓網路地產王持續增長,也能鞏固網路地產王在房地產網路廣告市場的龍頭寶座。
iProperty.com 集團啟用亞洲第一個區域性的豪華房地產網站iLuxuryasia.com([url]www.iluxuryasia.com),擁有亞洲頂尖的在線房地產網絡,同時也掌控香港首屈一指的房地產資料庫網站GoHome.com.hk(www.GoHome. com.hk)。

星期一, 11月 23, 2009

CNBC TRANSCRIPT: Warren Buffett & Bill Gates - Keeping America Great


CNBC TRANSCRIPT: Warren Buffett & Bill Gates - Keeping America Great

This is the unofficial transcript of the CNBC Town Hall event Warren Buffett and Bill Gates: Keeping America Great, taped Thursday, November 12, 2009 at Columbia University in New York City. It was prepared for CNBC by Realtime Subscription Services.


ANNOUNCER: The embodiment of the American dream, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, self-made billionaires whose values run as deep as their wealth. One redefined an industry, the other the modern investor. But both put their stock in America, and by investing in business and humanity, reaped the rewards of this great country's capitalist tradition. Today that tradition is under siege, our way of life questioned. And with America at an inflection point, a future generation looks for guidance from the world's two greatest capitalists. Now, they are going back to school, not to learn, but to teach. Showing the next generation of business leaders that wealth is not about the money you amass, but the number of lives you enrich. Tonight in a CNBC town hall event, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates share their secrets to keeping America great.

BECKY QUICK: A special CNBC town hall. I am Becky Quick at Columbia Business School at Columbia University. Let's hear it, guys. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] We are in the heart of New York City. This is the world's center of capitalism and this is the place where dreams really do come true. In fact, right now, look at all these people here today. We could be surrounded -- [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] -- We could be surrounded by the next Warren Buffett or Bill Gates. How about you? You ready to go?

STUDENT: We are so excited to all be here today. You wouldn't believe how much tickets are being sold for out front.

BECKY: I know you're not telling the truth. You had to get in with your I.D., right?

STUDENT: Yes, this is true.

BECKY: We're ready to go tonight. Tonight it is all about Keeping America Great. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

No people have done that better than Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. Folks, let's please welcome Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

I see Warren is trying to work the home crowd here with Columbia. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us tonight. This has been, as you know, an extraordinary year. This is a year wthe rules have becompletely rewritten, whave thrown out the rule books, and whave seen icons collapse. This is also a time when a lot of people have probably wondered about oway of life. People in this very room. That's going to be our focusjust a minute. Gentlemen, before we get to that, the two of you mayseem like an odd pair. For anybody who doesn't know you two well --

BUFFETT: You'll think more odd when we get through. [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: What brings you two together tonight? Why you two and

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we enjoy working together. Actually,

BECKY: Bill, what about you? You are ready to go with the students?

BILL GATES: Yeah, it will be a lot of fun. Warren and I love getting

BECKY: The reason you two are here tonight is this is a pivotal

bout

why here with these business students here at Columbia?

when I left Columbia, they told me I would probably have to come back and repeat a few classes. So here I am.

the questions and talking about our optimism. [APPLAUSE]

moment in history. People have questions about the economy, aour entire system of capitalism. And, gentlemen, let me ask each of

you, over the course of the last year, was there ever a time that you had doubts about capitalism and about our way of life?

BUFFETT: No, there was not a time. If there had been, last

e

f

days

o

BECKY: Bill, what do you think, Bill?

GATES: Well, we have a complex financial system which we have

t

e,

-

e were

BECKY: All right. Tonight is all about the students and why don't we

QUESTION: We are honored to have you here at the university.

es

BUFFETT: You went out toward the end, Becky.

ECKY: Just wondering whether greed and corruption were behind

what happened.

September when we invested a lot of money, that was when thcountry was looking into the abyss. The money was flowing out omoney market funds. The commercial paper market died and everything. We put $8 billion to work in just a matter of a few then. So I never lost confidence in the system. This country works, you know. We've got 200 years of proof. And it's going to continue twork. [APPLAUSE]

proven that we can make mistakes. But more fundamental than thais the innovation, the fact that you can create new companies, that people are willing to take risk and invest, that there's great science going on. This country still has the best universities, the best sciencand we're going to tune our system of capitalism, you know. The idea that you have a lot of short-term loans covering long-term needs, the amount of leverage that was there, there are definitely some lessons. But the fundamentals of the system, a marketplace-driven system where we invest in education and a great infrastructure for the longterm, that's continued. And, you know, I'll bet there are some inventions that took place in that fall in the darkest hour: Peoplworking on new drugs, new chips, new robots and things to make life better for everyone in the decades ahead. [APPLAUSE]

start out and get right to it. Why don't you start out. You ready to go?

[APPLAUSE] My question for you is directed to both of you, Mr. Gatand Mr. Buffett. I'd like to know your perspective on whether greed and immoral behavior, unethical behavior, were key causes of the recent financial crisis.

B

BUFFETT: It certainly played a part. We have always had greed.

hat didn't get invented in the last few years. And greed, fear in the

g

rong

.

e

.

.

. Probably get mentioned again in this one with Gordon

ity

ATES: Well, the best systems are ones where you have good shortg

at risk and

illing to do things long-term. Investing in new research, letting

who

ind of

T

third quarter -- I mean, the American people were really panicked there for a while. And it affected their -- it started out on Wall Street but then spilled over into the general economy subsequently. But we're never going to get rid of greed. We're never going to get rid of fear. What we do have is a system, as Bill said, a market system where we have the quality of opportunity and the rule of law combinedto unleash human potential in this country over the last couple of hundred years to the degree nobody would have believed possible a few centuries before that. There's nothinthat's gone wwith that systemOur economy was sputtering and still is sputtering some.But we've got the greatest enginever devised. Andit's just beginningGreed will continue. Don't worry about thatpretty soonGekko making a return. But that is not what drives the American system. What drives the American system is the quality of opportunin a market system and the knowledge that when you get out of here,you're going to enjoy the fruits of the knowledge you have gained. And it will keep working. I'd love to trade places with any of you.

Oliver Stone is putting out a second film here

BECKY: Bill, do you have any extra thoughts on that?

G

term metrics, great accounting, looking at profits, lookin

w

people build new companies. I was a huge beneficiary of this country's unique willingness to take risk on a young person. And, youknow, I got to hire people who were older. I got to sell to people were older. And it was kind of a dream come true. And that kthing is -- other countries have seen it and they are trying to create

that same dynamic. And that's good for the world. It's excellent that China and India will borrow our ideas about universities, about entrepreneurship, simplification of business. None of us want to borrow this extreme leverage that we got into. But in a sense, that's kind of a -- I don't want to say minor, but it doesn't speak to theof why things have worked so well.

heart

rn Virginia area and I'm a first-year student here at Columbia.

nd I want to thank, once again, both of you for coming. It's an

w

?

y

usiness, the two companies I admired the most, Wang Industries and

n

under?

ials in

fic job of dealing with really what was an

conomic Pearl Harbor

BECKY: All right. Let's get to another question. How about right here?

QUESTION: Hello. My name is Accosia Bagima. I am from the Northe

A

honor. My question is directed toward Mr. Gates. Mr. Gates, I knoyou're not in the finance industry, but can you tell us what you were feeling when you first heard that Lehman was filing for bankruptcy GATES: I don't follow investment banks, you know, very closely. Soit didn't strike me as fundamentally a terrible thing. In the technolog

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Digital Equipment, had both basically gone bankrupt. Digital actually got bought. And so the fact that there's these ups and downs, certain firms get knocked out, I didn't have any sentimentality over that particular firm. Now, this knock-on effect where other people had debts to them and those were going to be very hard to settle and that complexity might cause things to freeze up, that I called up Warreand I said, "Should I be worried?" And he said, "A little bit." [LAUGHTER] BECKY: Warren, was it a mistake for the government to allowLehman to go

BUFFETT: It may have been. But I would say overall, the officWashington did a terri

e , as we talked about. So I would say that if

nk it

they

Merrill hadn't been bought by the B of A, Merrill would have gone very quickly. And the dominoes were really lined up. And I don't thiwas fully appreciated, perhaps, what a big domino Lehman was or howclose it was to the next big dominoes. But overall, I give (former Treasury Secretary Henry) Paulson, I give (Federal Reserve ChairmanBen) Bernanke, I give (FDIC Chairman) Sheila Bair, I give (Treasury Secretary) Tim Geithner, I give them very high marks for the fact took unprecedented action. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Let's get to another question. Right back here at the microphone. Go ahead.

QUESTION: I hope this works.

BECKY: It does. It sounds like it.

UESTION: Hi, my name is Greg Letter. I grew up in Ohio and I'm

y question was with Lehman

rothers and Goldman Sachs, this relates to Mr. Buffett, you had the

r

in Wall

treet at that time. Now, there could have been things happened that

) Roy

is

ent

Did you change your mind since then?

ECKY: Have you changed your mind since then? You said at that

anagement.

n

Q

also a current student, obviously. M

B

opportunity to invest. I was wondering how you chose to invest in Goldman Sachs and why you chose not to maybe invest in both, owhat made you not decide to invest in Lehman Brothers. BUFFETT: I had more confidence in both the numbers and the management of Goldman Sachs than any other major firm

S

would have made Goldman Sachs be next in line. (Goldman CEOBlankfein had said I worked 30 seconds behind Morgan Stanley. This covered very well in the book called "Too Big To Fail" by Andrew Ross Sorken. But I did not think the system was going to go under. I felt Washington in the end would do the right thing. I thought if they did the right thing, Goldman Sachs was -- I thought it was the best-run operation. I thought its figures were the most solid and I thought they would prosper the most in the future ahead. Plus I liked the terms, too. [LAUGHTER] BECKY: Warren, you said at that time they had the best managemand a lot of other things.

BUFFETT: Pardon me?

B

time they had the best m

BUFFETT: Goldman, my experience with Goldman goes back to wheI met Sidney Weinberg in 1940. I followed the company a long

me. They have a discipline around there that I think particularly in

e

ti

their marking to market and all of that, I think probably is the best among the firms in Wall Street. And I thought Roy Blankfein had avery strong appreciation of risk. Now, if the system went down, everybody gets hit. But I felt to a great extent they had factored th

best people into the business. So they were my number one choice.had a few other choices that were offered to me. [APPLAUSE]

I

UESTION: It's a pleasure to be here with both of you today. My

e severity of the economic downturn, which some attribute to

bout big

ell,

a

le for the

e,

d,

s

.

s

ow, there's a question of could there be a

t would cause them to step in and maybe tax

ns

world wanted to deleverage. And they were

eleveraging under conditions of extreme haste and with guns to their

head in some cases. And the only entity that could possibly leverage

BECKY: Let's get to another question, everybody. Another question.

Q

name is John Lemley. I'm originally from Scarsdale, New York. Given

th

systemic breakdown in risk allegation and underwriting standards, a fiercely partisan debate has ensued regarding the appropriate role of government. Can this role be positive and if so, how? BECKY: What do you guys think

a

government? GATES: Wthere's clearly

ro

government in business cycles. And over timthat's been tuneyou know, mistakehave been madeNow, the question iand interest rates. Nmeasure of risk thatransactions, make the bigger firms put more money aside. That is still really a question of whether you can recognize these situatioand actually have government play a very positive role. Now, asthings start to fall apart, we know there are ways that taking firms that are going down and handling those in a more expedited way -- there's a lot that can be done there. But the basic idea of, can youspot bubbles? Can the government spot bubbles? That's a great question. Some great economists have some ideas. But it is not a proven territory.

-- and that's largely measured through inflation

BUFFETT: Last September, only the government could have saved things. The whole

d

up at the same time that everybody else wanted to deleverage was the Federal government. And when 200 billion flowed out of momarket funds in a couple of days, when commercial paper stopped, only the Federal government could act then. And fortunately we had the people there who recognized that and acted promptly. The government has a huge role. And now going forward, it's a very tricky thing to figure out how to prevent excessive leverage and prevent ofbalance sheet arrangements from getting in trouble or for just having people at the top of major institutions that run risks they shouldrunning. But we're wrestling with that right now. There should be more down side to the head of any institution that has to go to the federal government to be saved for reasons of the greater society. And so far, we have been better at carrots and sticks in rewarding CEOs at the top. But I think some more sticks are called for.

ney

fn't

be

mbia.

nd I run a business school right now and seems to me a lot of the

To

hat extent do you guys think that business schools like Columbia

aining people to think about value, leadership. There's wonderful

t that,

one

ut of

d

f

es it

have to come from somewhere else?

BECKY: All right. Let's get to another question. [APPLAUSE] QUESTION: My name is Brian, first-year student here at Colu

A

villains in the full credit crisis were business school graduates.

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were in some sense responsible for what transpired in the credit crisis? GATES: Well, remember that capitalism has been massively successful, you know. Standard of life, medicine, all these great things have come out of it. And business schools play a role in

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skills that are taught at great schools like this. And so the facyes, we have had a crisis and we have dropped back, maybe we wasted two or three years net because of the things that were dwrong, that doesn't say that business schools aren't performing a great service, you know. The case studies of this crisis will be taughthere for decades to come. And so at least we'll get that benefit othe pain we went through. Leverage is a very dangerous thing. Anperhaps, you know, Warren talked about derivatives as weapons omass destruction. That wasn't much heeded. And yet at the end of the day, what happened here, particularly in the real estate sector, the notion of risk that price would drop down and what that meant systematically for those instruments, it wasn't well understood. Andthe mass destruction followed as predicted. BECKY: Warren, can you teach ethics in a business school? Do

BUFFETT: Come back now?

BECKY: Can you teach ethics at a business school?

BUFFETT: Well, I think the best place to learn ethics is in the home.

es from what we see around us before

e get to business school. I think that it's important to emphasize

t education and

thics fully on in the

ng

tral

all

ture. I mean, this is an economy you're going into

[APPLAUSE] If you look back on the 19th Century,

great bank panics. If you look back at the 20th

Great Depression and world wars and flu

so this

t

N: Hi. My name is Katrina Gankena, and I was born in

ussia. And I'm a second-year student at Columbia Business School.

oing to

I think most of us get our valu

w

them, but I think that if I had a choice of having grea

e

home or as a course in a school later on, I would choose the home. The wonderful thiabout it is in this country, is you cansucceed magnificently with ethics. It's not a hindrance. It's a help sometimes. It's a neusometimes. But it'snot a hindrance athas a wonderful futhat is so much -- we had seven Century, we had the epidemics. This country doesn't avoid problems. It just solves them. And in the next 100 years, our machine will sputter again, you know. Maybe 15 years will be so-so years, but there will be 85 great years. And during the 20th Century the Dow went from 66 to 11,400, is fertile soil that you're working in and there's no reasons to cucorners.

. And to cut corners, you know, everybody here

BECKY: All right. Let's get another question. [APPLAUSE] QUESTIO

R

My question is for Mr. Gates. What industry do you think is g

produce the next Bill Gates? Because that's the industry I want to get

ry couple of years, it's

een the industry that has not only been the most exciting, it's also

't

And

xciting, you know, I don't think I'd have done so well. [LAUGHTER]

a job in. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] GATES: Industries do have different paces of innovation. So the IT industry, driven by the magic of software, the magic of the optic fiber, magic of the chip which doubles in power eve

b

changed the rules for many other industries. The idea of information being available, what the online world is like, that's incredible. I'll tell you, there are a few other industries that will compete for being exciting in the decades ahead. The energy business, some approachwill provide cheaper energy that's environmentally friendly. And there's a lot of science, a lot of business. That's a global thing. There will be some great careers there. Medicine, you know. We havensolved Parkinson's or Alzheimer's or about 20 diseases of these poor countries, and yet we can be sure that we're on track to do that. so those three industries I think you would do great in. There's many others, but those are the ones that have the strongest appeal to me. BUFFETT: Find what turns you on. Find what you have a passion for. If somebody said to me when I was getting out of Columbia, you know, that Bill's business was going to be the one that would be

e

But I knew what turned me on. I had a professor, Ben Graham, I offered to go to work for him for nothing. He said, "You're overpriced." Nonetheless, I went into the business. [APPLAUSE] guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on. There's no question about that. Don't let anybody else tell you what to do. You figure out what you are doing. [APPLAUSE]

I will

ts.

You might be surprised at

eir response. We will tell you right after this break.

BECKY: All right. We actually got the chance to poll these studenAnd we asked them if there would ever be a company as transformative as Microsoft in their lifetime.

th

BECKY: Welcome back to CNBC's town hall. We are with Bill Gates

nd Warren Buffett at the Columbia School of Business at Columbia

niversity. We're in the heart of New York City. And before we went

to that break, we asked one of our students -- one of our students

actually asked, which industry is going to be producing the next Bill

a

U

Gates. Now, as we mentioned, we got the chance to take a poll of thstudents in this room and we asked them if they thought they wouldever see a company as transformative as Microsoft in their lifetimes again. Gentlemen, eight out of 10 said yes. That's 80% saying yesthey do think this will be another issue. You guys are a very enthusiastic bunch. Bill, do you share that sense of optimism?

e

,

ow, stun

be

several companies that kind of take your breath away.

SE]

m. Glad to

have you both here. My question is actually for Mr. Buffett. There has

with Burlington Northern. I was wondering if you could share with us

d

anyplace else. We start out with the premise, and

I can't think of a more sound premise, that there will be more people

t

s are

country

t

GATES: Absolutely. Capitalism is great and having thousands of things going on in parallel. And a lot of them fail. Some are just mediocre. But the ones that are special can grow and, you kneverybody. And in all those fields I mentioned, there is going to

BECKY: All right. Let's get to another student question. [APPLAUQUESTION: Hi, my name is Lisa Williams. I'm from South Orange,New Jersey. I'm currently a first-year at the MBA progra

been a lost of discussion around the true drivers with the recent deal

your key motivation for wanting to increase exposure to the railroad sector at this time. BUFFETT: You know, when I was six, I wanted a railroad set and mydad didn't get it. [APPLAUSE] You think about it. The railroads are tied to the future prosperity of this country. You can't move a railroato China or India or

in this country, 10, 20, 30 years from now. They will be moving more and more goods back and forth to each other. And you have the mosenvironmentally friendly and the most cost-efficient way of doing that on the railroads. The Burlington Northern last year moved -- on average it moved a ton of freight, 470 miles on one gallon of diesel. That is far, far more efficient than what takes place over the highways. You have the situation where overall they use 1/3 less fuel, they put far fewer pollutants into the atmosphere than trucks will. One train will supplant 280 trucks are so on the road. So the railin tune with the future. I like the West. I like the 30-some-thousandmiles of roadway that Burlington has. And, you know, if this has a poor future, the rails have a poor future. I'm willing to bet a lot of money, 34 billion to be specific -- [LAUGHTER] -- on the fact tha10 years from now, 20 years from now, 50 years from now, there will be more and more goods being moved by rail and better for the

country and it will be better for the shareholders of the Burlington Northern. BECKY: OK. [APPLAUSE] Another question. QUESTION: Hi. My name is Josh Porter. I'm a first-year from NoReading, M

rth

assachusetts. It's an honor to have you both here. So we

just went through the worst financial crisis of hopefully all of our

s up at night, you

know, worrying about their future. What, if anything, keeps either of

ng

't wish it on anybody, but there were things being

offered. There are opportunities for us to do things that didn't exist a

ition

GATES: No. The financial system, fortunately, good leadership has a

And a

pandemic, which we're actually having in terms of the rate of spread of

t

lifetime. And I know it keeps a lot of American

you up at night? BUFFETT: I try to live my life so nothing keeps me up at night. [APPLAUSE] I don't like to sound, you know, like a mortician durian epidemic or anything, but last fall was really quite exciting for me. [LAUGHTER] I don

year or two earlier. So I really don't -- I don't want to be in a poswhere I am leveraged or something of the sort that does keep me upat night. I did not worry about the ultimate survival of our economic system. We were messed up. Wasn't any question about that. But the plants haven't gone away. The cornfields haven't gone away. The talent of the American people hasn't gone away. The innovativeness of the next Bill Gates hasn't gone away. This country was going to do fine. I knew that. We just had to get things straightened out. And we're well on the way to having that happen. BECKY: Bill, you mentioned -- [APPLAUSE] You mentioned before that you called Warren and he said, ‘Yeah, we should maybe be a little worried.’ Did you stay up late that night worrying about it?

lot of self-correction built into it. I think there are a few things that could surprise us that are negative. You know, big terrorist event sometime in the next 20 years, that would be a big negative.

a new flu, one right now. And fortunately, its actual impact is very modest, way less than any such thing. So you have to keep your eyeout for a few outliers like that. Those are the two that I would pointo. But overwhelmingly, the rest of the system, you know, there is self-correction built into it. The long-term thing that I don't lose sleep over but I worry about is that we do have our education system, particularly the K through 12 part, not improving as much as we

should. And it's an important system for opportunity, it's an importansystem for the economic strength of the country, and since it hasn't improved that much, that's a bit scary and needs a lot more attention.

t

next

works very well over time, and that's our American economic system.

e

ht

for the --

ics

hat

[APPLAUSE]

back

e

And, first of all, thank you both so much for coming here. Mr. Buffett,

the recent runup in the market has been historic. And it seems that

e question the sustainability of the current price level. Do

ou think the rally is for real?

r for the market has been since 1942?

est calendar year from 1942 to the present time. Well, there's no

BUFFETT: Becky, if you had a wonderful farm and you knew the50 years there would be five droughts but there would be 45 good years, I mean, you would not become paralyzed thinking about the five drought years. You would recognize that you've got a system that

BECKY: Since wjust had the drougyear, does that make it less likely

BUFFETT: No. If you study statistat Columbia, you'd recognize t

BECKY: OK. Let's get to another question. Right

here. QUESTION: I'm Peter Lawrence, first-year stud

nt from Columbia. many peopl

y

BUFFETT: What's going to happen tomorrow, huh? [APPLAUSE] Let me give you an illustration. I bought my first stock in 1942. I was 11. I had been dillydallying up until then. I got serious. [LAUGHTER] What do you think the best yea

B

reason for you to know the answer. The answer is 1954. In 1954, the Dow … dividends was up 50%. Now if you look at 1954, we were in a recession a good bit of that time. The recession started in July of '53. Unemployment peaked in September of '54. So until November of '54 you hadn't seen an uptick in the employment figure. And the

unemployment figure more than doubled during that period. It was the best year there was for the market. So it's a terrible mistake to look at what's going on in the economy today and then decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on it. You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on how much you're getting for your money, term value you're getting for your money at any given time. And nexweek doesn't make any difference because next week, next week is going to be a week further away. And the important thing is to have the right long-term outlook, evaluate the businesses you are buying. And then a terrible market or a terrible economy is your friend. I docare, in making a purchase of the Burlington Northern, I don't care whether next week, or next month or even next year there is a big revival in car loadings or any of that sort of thing. A period like this gives me a chance to do things. It's silly to wait. I wrote an article. Iyou wait until you see the robin, spring will be over. BECKY: But at the same time -- [APPLAUSE] Warren, you have repeatedly said over the last year that investing in American areas isbet on the future of America. But you have also invested overseas,

longt

n't

f

a

companies like BYD. You both spent some time in China. Are there

ore opportunities overseas or right here in America?

m

BUFFETT: I see more opportunity in the United States. We're the biggest economy and we're looking for big deals. But I am delightedto find something, you know, whether it's in China or whether it's in Israel, like Iscar or whatever it may be. There are more opportunities

the United States than anyplace else.

f the world does poorly and

e U.S. does well. Our fate is tied to open trade, innovation

urlington, some of the stuff that's

n those railroads might come from other countries.

e as rich as we

re versus be as poor as they were back in 1979, we'd be way better

t's have them be consumers and inventors just

ke we are. They are a long ways away from that. But they are a

in

BECKY: Bill, you agree with that? GATES: Well, yes. The U.S. benefits as the globe benefits. You're not going to have a case where the rest o

th

everywhere. You know, even the B

o

BUFFETT: I hope so. GATES: It's exciting to see what's going on in China. It's great for us. If we had a choice for all the people in China to b

a

off to say, you know, le

li

large enough population that great things are happening there. And,you know, many countries that we thought of as basket cases and wesent lots of aid to, like Brazil or Mexico or Thailand, are now big contributors. So it's good for the world that it's not as dependent just on the U.S. But the U.S. is where the energy revolution is likely to happen, the IT revolution will continue. We are expected to lead the way. BECKY: All right. We're going to be back with another question in just a moment. [APPLAUSE] And by the way, if you have the chanchow would you like to have Warren Buffett or Bill Gates as your careercouns

e,

elor? Well, we're going to have that when we come right back.

PPLAUSE]

[A BECKY: Welcome back, everybody. We have more questions for Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. And we are running through them, but let's

eep them going. Got a question right over here.

UESTION: My name is Erica Braley and I am a second-year

GATES: Hmmm. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] Well, I do a lot of

. I'm

e

you know, arming myself with that

knowledge and sitting down with people who live the topic and

ople

, as I get ready to

graduate, I was wondering, what's the one thing that your MBA didn't

wanted to go into. I knew I was interested in investing, like I say,

k

Q

student. My question is for Mr. Gates. What is the most important thing you do every day?

variety. I think reading a lot, you know, and continuing to learnin a lot of new areas in the Foundation, education, health. And I lovreading a lot. So I think,

brainstorming with them, that's what helps me back the right peand make sure I know what's going on. So I guess I'd say learning is what is the key thing. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] BECKY: What was that? Let's get to another question. QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here today. My name is Justin Heyman, I'm a second-year MBA

prepare you for when you got out into the real world?

BUFFETT: Well, I was -- it prepared me very well, not the whole degree, but specific professors prepared me very well for what I

from the time I was six or seven years of age. So I was lucky that I found what turned me on early on. And I had these two marvelous

professors here at Columbia that just being around -- I had read all

d

reated

n. They

e.

just propelled me into a field I

from these professors that believed

dd one point because -- to the MBA

is

t

00 in

the stuff they hawritten. So it wasn't I was acquiring lots of incremental knowledge but I was getting inspired. They were terrific for me. They tme like a sowould take me out to dinner. Ben Graham did the same thing for msituation. Right now, I would pay $100,000 for 10% of the future earnings of any of you. So anybody that wants to see me after this over -- [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] If that's true, you are a million-dollar asset right now, right, if 10% of you is worth 100,000? Youcould improve -- many of you, and I certainly could have when I got out, just in terms of learning communication skills. You know, it's nosomething that is taught. I actually went to a Dale Carnegie courselater on in terms of public speaking. But if you improve your value 50% by having better communication skills, that's another $500,0terms of capital value. See me after the class and I'll pay you 150-thousand. [APPLAUSE] BECKY: Warren, you bring up your time here. I don't know if you can see the monitors back here, but we did take a look at your yearbook and steal your picture from 1951 year. BUFFETT: Uh-oh.

So it gave me confidence in myself. Italready love with a terrific tailwind in me. [APPLAUSE] But let me a

QUICK: I think we have a picture in the back. There you are. [APPLAUSE]

BUFFETT: I don't think I'd pay $100,000 for 10% of that guy.

[LAUGHTER]

ther question right here.

My question is for Mr. Gates. You obviously worked

very hard to get to where you are. Could you reflect on what role pure

ith

ed to. And I was lucky in terms of the

timing. The invention of the microprocessor was something profound.

bsessed

o

iness School. I'd

like to direct my question to both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates. In the

unique friendship,

what do you admire most about each other?

view he has about what

he should do with the wealth he's accumulated. I mean, as he said,

ht time,

with the right wiring and all of that sort of thing. In the end, he knows

g

BECKY: Ano

BUFFETT: Hi. My name is Oleg Cheesh. I'm a second-year MBAstudent here.

luck played in your success?

GATES: Well, I was lucky in many ways. I was lucky to be born wcertain skills. I was lucky to have parents that created an environment where they shared what they were working on and let me buy as many books as I want

And it turned out only if you were kind of young and looking at that could you appreciate what it meant. And then I had been owith writing software. It turned out that was the key missing thing that would allow the microprocessor to have this incredible impact. Sin timing and skill set, in some of the people I was lucky enough to meet, you know, meeting Warren and talking to him, learning from him, it is unusual to have so much luck in one life, I think. But it's been a major factor in what I have been able to do. BECKY: All right. Another question right here. QUESTION: Hello, my name is Ugin Quinn, I'm from Deerfield, Illinois. And I'm a first-year student at Columbia Bus

context of both your professional relationship and

BECKY: OK. Who wants to take that one first? [LAUGHTER] BUFFETT: My athletic ability. Say that. [APPLAUSE] Well, I would say what I really most admire about Bill is the

he was very lucky. He was born in the right country, at the rig

he's a beneficiary of a terrific society, and not everybody gets the lonstraws like he and I did. So he is -- and he has this view that every human life worldwide is the equivalent of every other human life, andhe's backing it up not only with money, but backing it up with his

time. And his wife, Melinda, is backing it up with her time. And they are really going to spend, you know, the last half of their lives or so using both money, talent, energy, imagination, all improving the livesof 6.5 billion people around the world. That's what I admire the most. [APPLAUSE] BECKY: Bill. GATES: With Warren, there are a lot of things you could pick, you know, his integrity as an example for the world. His sense of humor.

But I think I'd pick his desire to teach, his desire to teach things that

d put them in a simple form so that people can

understand and get the benefit of all his experience, all his models of

th

t.

Dolly, first year here at Columbia. I came from

Portugal. I have a question for both of you. You both knew early in

What advice do you

have for those of us who are a little bit unclear?

and

hen it wasn't clear it

could be a career. When that happened, it was great. I think most

LAUSE] It will make more difference

your life. It will change your aspiration, all kind of things. It's

are complex an

how the world works. He loves to teach. And he does it meeting wistudents. He does it in his annual newsletter. He does it when he's talking to me on the phone. It's a real gift that I admire incredibly. [APPLAUSE] BECKY: Let's take another question right here. QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here tonighI am Ibrahim

your careers what you wanted to do in your life.

GATES: Well, finding the thing that you are passionate about that you are good at can sometimes take a period of years. I think Warren and I were lucky we kind of ran into it. I wasn't even sure it was software. I was kind of obsessed with it but t

other people get into their 20s and have to try out some different experiences. And some things will expose you to a lot of different businesses, a lot of different work opportunities. And I think you can make your first few jobs optimized for getting that exposure. And then when you want it, see the thing that you want to be fanatical about and just jump on to that. BECKY: All right. BUFFETT: First of all, I'd say marry the right person. [LAUGHTER]And I'm serious about that. [APP

in

enormously important who you marry. Beyond that, I would say that

o what you would do if you were in my position, where the money

oing

e

at

d

means nothing to you. At 79, ... I work every day. And it's what I want to do more than anything else in the world. The closer you can come to that early on in your life, you know the more fun you're gto have in life and really the better you're going to do. So don't be driven where you think the last dollar is presently or anything of thatsort. And then also go to work, if possible, for an organization or anindividual that you admire. I mean I offered to go to work for Ben Graham because there was nobody I admired more in the business than him. I didn't care what he paid me. When he finally did hire min 1954, I moved from Omaha to New York and I didn't know what I was getting paid until I got my first paycheck. But I knew I wanted towork for Ben Graham. And I knew I would jump out of bed every morning and be excited about what I would do and I would go homenight smarter than I was in the morning. Go to work at a job that turns you on and a person that turns you on and institution. [APPLAUSE] BECKY: Stay right here. We will be right back.

BECKY: All right. Class continues, everybody. We are back with the

o greatest capitalists out there with Investing 101, back to more

tudents’ questions. Why don't we start right here?

QUESTION: My name is Adam Van Dam and I'm a first-year student

l crisis has

impacted that philosophy or your investment process in any way?

s.

1.6

there will be more next year. We want to be in business with a

ree.

tw

s

here. This question is for Mr. Buffett. If the Burlington Northern acquisition is any indication of your long-term buy and hold forever investment philosophy, I am wondering if the financia

BUFFETT: No. It hasn't changed at all. We like products like thiHow is this for shameless products? [APPLAUSE] This started in 1886. It's gone through all of these events. And the end will be billion eight-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products come today and

durable competitive advantage with managements we like and trust and do them at a price we like. It hasn't changed a 1/10 of a degIncidentally, we own Fruit of the Loom, too, but I'm not going to doa product. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: OK. Our next question right here. QUESTION: Hi, I'm Brian Seedabalker. I'm a second-year student. Mr. Buffett, it's great to see you again. I was on the trip to Omaha last month. Thank you for hosting us. My question is, how would you

recommend an individual investor who follows the Graham and Dodd

vestment, you know I just

advise looking at as many things

you

the

g

s

looking for companies. And you have

isn't going to tell you about great deal

yourself. And that takes a fair amount

going to do that, if you are just going en I

just advise an index fund more consist

ith

er

o

a

ut sleeping at night. But it's not

because I like cash as an investment. Cash is a bad investment over

philosophy to allocate their capital today?

BUFFETT: Well, it depends whether they are going to be an active investor. Graham distinguished between the defensive and the enterprising and that. So if you are going to spend a lot of timeon in

as possible and you will find some bargains. And whenfind them, you have to act. It doesn't -- it hasn't changed at all since I was here in 1950, 1951. And it won't change rest of my life. You start turninpages. When I got out of 10,000-some pages twice, to find them yourself. The world s. You have to find them of time. So if you are not to be a passive investor, thently over a long period of time. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Most of you don't look like you are overburdened wcash anyway. [LAUGHTER] Cash is going to become worth less ovtime. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. And you don't want to pay too much for them so you have thave some discipline about what you pay. But the thing to do is findgood business and stick with it. BECKY: Does that mean you think we are through the roughest times? You had always kept the cash word around, too. BUFFETT: We always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don't worry abo

school, I turned every page in Moody'

time. But you always want to have enough so that nobody else cadetermine your future essentially. The worst -- the finan

n

cial panic is

behind us. The economic spillout which came to some extent from

will

t it

ve

hank you for your investment.

[APPLAUSE]

BUFFETT: Why aren't you at work? [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

onomy

back on track.

e

uclear is going to go through some of

the revival and see if it can solve some of its cost challenges. As a

get lots of R&D and

regulatory enablement because one of them is going to give us much

as

rgy

y

re

s that

that financial panic is still with us. It will end. I don't know if itend tomorrow or next week or next month. Or maybe a year. Buwon't go on forever. And to sit around and try and pick the bottom, people were trying to do that last March and the bottom hadn't comein unemployment and the bottom hadn't come in business but the bottom had come in stocks. Don't pass up something that's attractitoday because you think you will find something way more attractivetomorrow. BECKY: Another question right here. QUESTION: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, my name is Antionette Genevieve. I am a first-year executive MBA student. And I actually work at Goldman Sachs, so t

QUESTION: My question to you is I'd like both of your thoughts on the investment of alternative energy as for developing our ecand getting it

BECKY: Bill, you touched on this earlier.

BILL: Well, there are many, many ideas. And there's enough that wcan say most of them will turn out to be dead ends. You know, the solar-thermal, solar-electric, n

country, we want to make sure all of those

cheaper power without causing any problem. We don't know which one it is. And we don't have quite as much R&D going into those things as I'd like to see. We have quite a bit, but I think the government policies could drive for more. But it is one of these arethat is somewhat faddish in nature. When you have a lot of enefocusing on a field, the amount of money that goes in is very large. And the overall return on capital is often quite large. The car industrin its heyday was a disaster. The airline industry, even the softwaindustry because people don't remember all the non-Microsoftdon't exist until today. When something is hot, you get kind of a

bubble. So energy, you're going to have to be a bit careful to make sure it's one that's really got its cost structure in line and it's not justbeing pushed along by subsidies and there will be scientific surprises. So a very hot area, but not necessarily a good area for investment. BECKY: All right. Why don't we leave it there for now? When wecome back, we will have more with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. [APPLAUSE] We'll be talking about leadership and President Obama right after this break.

BECKY: All right. Welcome back, everybody. We are at ColumbiaUniversity. And right now we're going straight to the top of ColumbiBusiness School. We a

a

re joined by Dean Hubbard. [CHEERS AND

APPLAUSE] Glenn Hubbard, by the way, is not only the head of the

usiness School here, he also happened to serve at the White House

where he was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. So this is

nd

HUBBARD: Warren, one thing you said years ago that's always stuck

there's some value in knowing

when it's going to be low tide. It also says there's value in knowing

do we encourage business leaders

who understand context and connect the dots?

came up here every Thursday afternoon. He didn't need to do it, you

d

B

a man who knows not only about what's happening in the economy, but also what's happening with these students. You talk to them all the time. What's the question that you'd like to pose to Mr. Gates aMr. Buffett? HUBBARD: Thanks, Becky, and thanks to both of you for being here today. And, Warren, welcome home. BUFFETT: Thank you. [APPLAUSE]

with me is you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out. And that, of course, says maybe

context. How do we develop -- how

BUFFETT: Well, I think they have learned a lot about that in the last year. Some never learn, you know. At Berkshire, we have actually 70-some managers. I think most of them are a fair amount smarter than they were 15 months ago but they were plenty smart to go in. But, you know, I think that what I learned from a Ben Graham, who

know. He donated whatever he got paid back to the school and all of that. But having sound principles takes you through everything. An

the bedrock principles that really I learned from Graham and Dodd, I haven't had to do anything with them. They take me through good periods. They take me through bad periods. In the end, I don't worrabout them because I know they work. BECKY: Bill, what do you think is the most important character for a business leader to have? GATES: Well, it's surprising that the fundamentals of business are pretty straightforward, you know. You tr

y

y to take more in income than

you spend in cost. That's a

ising

terms of projecting out into

on

making

t

ess

ard. Learning how it works and doesn't

by reading a lot, I think that's

e and a business school is an intense

t ahead of the game.

r

at year.

easure it by whether the moat around that business, what gives it

hen I

,

pretty straightforward subtraction. But it's surpr

in

the years ahead that, you know, are we making the right investments, are we gaining the competition, are weit a little bit harder for people toreplace what we're doing? Thakind of common sense, I guyou've got to develop it throughexperience. And I think it's neat if you are young and you can see that in a small scale and be hands on with it because a lot of people who start with large businesses may have a hardbasics are pretty straightforwwork in a variety of industries, something that comes with timperiod where you can ge BUFFETT: I send one message out every year and a half or two years. They get one letter from me every couple of years. And basically it says, run this business like it's the only business that youfamily can own for the next 100 years. You can't sell it. But every year don't measure it by the earnings in the quarter th

time with it. So, you know, the

M

competitive advantage over time has widened or narrowed. If youkeep doing that for 100 years, it's going to work out very well. Ttell them basically if the reason for doing something is everybody else is doing it, it's not good enough. If you have to use that as a reason

forget it. You don't have a good reason for doing something. Neuse that. BECKY: Let's get to some student questions. [APPLAUSE] QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, it is absolutely fantastic having you here. Thanks a lot. My name is Kata Cafunka. I am a second-year MBA

ver

student here at Columbia. Actually, my question is really

lated to what you were asking. Many of us and many people in

nly a few

eople got that height, right? So what do you think were the major

can

o what I do. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] We did both have a passion.

ch. We probably felt if we did it well, we would get rich. But

e'd have done it, you know, if somebody was slipping bread in under

r

.

re

general aspire to become somebody like you. But actually o

p

qualities that you have that distinguish you from the majority? BECKY: All right. Bill, Warren, what makes you stand out from the crowd? BUFFETT: It's always interesting when Bill and I appear together, they don't figure they can do what Bill does, but they know they

d

We were doing what we did because we loved it. We weren't doing itto get ri

w

the door, you know, to keep us going. And so I think that passion foit is enormously important. I was lucky enough to have a couple of great teachers, particularly one great teacher. I had a great teacher in life in my father. But I had another great teacher in terms of profession in terms of Ben Graham. I was lucky enough to get the right foundation very early on. And then basically I didn't listen to anybody else. I just look in the mirror every morning and the mirror always agrees with me. And I go out and do what I believe I should be doing. And I'm not influenced by what other people think. BECKY: All right. We'll get to Bill's answer on this in just a minute[APPLAUSE] Bill Gates and Warren Buffett right after this break.

BECKY: All right. Welcome back, everybody. Welcome back to

om everyone else, what would that be?

class. We have left that last break waiting for an answer from Bill Gates. Bill, if you had to pick one thing that makes you stand out

fr

GATES: Well, we talked about some of the basics, having great people around you, reading a lot, thinking long-term. I also think, though, there become a few magic moments where you have to haconfidence in yourself. You know, Warren

ve

when he set off on his own,

he could have gone and taken a job as an analyst somewhere. But he

have

QUESTION: My name is Nikki Shelton from Roseville, New York. I'm

k

reat

You

recently made a huge contribution to the Bill and Melinda Gates

knew that he had the skill, that he was going to raise money and his own partnership. When I dropped out of Harvard and said to myfriends, ‘Come work for me,’ there was a certain kind of brass self-confidence in that. You have a few moments like that where trusting yourself and saying yes, this can come together -- you have to seize on those because not many come along. BECKY: All right. Great advice. Believe in yourself. Guys, we're going to try and go into a cram session and get in some answers pretty rapid fire. Let's get right back here. We have a question.

a second-year student here at the school. First, I just want to thanyou guys for being great philanthropists. You guys have done a gjob in the world. [APPLAUSE] And my question is for Mr. Buffett.

Foundation. If you can talk to us a little bit about what your reasoning was and how you'd like to see those funds used. BUFFETT: Well, I wouldn't have given it to them unless I was 100% in sync with their objective, which is do the most good for the mostpeople, wherever they may be, male or female, whatever their whatever their religion or so on. They believe every human

color,

life is

equal to every other one. I am very good at making money. If you

read what Adam Smith wrote in 1776 about specialization of labor, you know, he said if you need to deliver a baby, don't try to learn to do it yourself. Get an obstetrician. So Bill and Melinda will be better and my children who will also have foundations will be better at doit than I would be. And that's fine. I'll work at what I'm good at andI'll let them do it. And they are doing it 100% in accord with my wishes. BECKY: Another question right here. QUESTION: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, welcome to Columbia Business

ing

School. My name is Chris. I'm from Pennsylvania and I'm a

first-year MBA student. My question is, who have been some of your

most important mentors? And what lessons have you learned fthem? BECKY: Bill.

rom

GATES: Well, I benefited from my dad and mom who set a great

dad

example. My was a lawyer and shared what he was doing at

work. I have had some business partners that we have learned

is

ge

together, Steve Balmer in particular. And then I pick Warren as somebody I have learned an immense amount from, just hearing hstories of how he dealt with tough situations, how he thought lonterm, how he models the world. If you get a chance to spend timwith people like that, it's fantastic. BECKY: All right. We will be right back. Stay right here.

BECKY: All right. Ready? Welcome back, everybody. This is real

runch time. Let's get right to it. You got it question?

in

here. My

question is on Apple. Mr. Gates, if you could just comment and tell us

c

QUESTION: Yeah. Welcome. My name is Steven Matthews. I amthe executive Business School here. Thanks for coming

what your thoughts are on the job Steve Jobs has done as the CEO of Apple. [LAUGHTER]

GATES: Well, he's done a fantastic job. And Apple is in a bit of a different business where they make hardware and software together.

But when Steve was coming back to Apple, which was actually through an acquisition of NeXT that he ran, Apple was in very tough shape. fact, most likely, it wasn't going to survive. And he brought in a team. He brought in inspiration about great products and design that's made Apple back into being an incredible force in doing good things. And it's, you know, great to have competitors like that. Wwrite software for Apple, Microsoft does. They compete with AppleBut he, of all the leaders in the industry that I have worked with, heshowed more inspiration and he saved the company.

BECKY: OK. Tag, you're it.

QUESTION: Thank you. My name is Michael. I'm a first year MBA student. The question is for Mr. Gates. I was wondering if you think Google at all resembles Microsoft during Microsoft's early years.

GATES: Well, they have some of the same problems we had. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] It's another fine competitor. They are hiring a lot of smart people. They have gotten into the lead position in search, which is incredibly profitable to be number one in that. They may get a little competition as time goes forward. But they are a great example of what can happen, you know, two young guys who got together, pursued an idea and created a success that's absolutely gigantic. And we all, you know, hopefully use search engines, maybe a variety. [LAUGHTER] And we benefit from that.

BECKY: Right here.

QUESTION: Hi, I'm Josh Austin. I'm a second-year MBA student. My question is for you, Mr. Buffett. Value investors, such as yourself, believe that fundamental analysis, deep fundamental analysis is critical to intelligent investing. However, you have said several times in the past that you have made very rapid capital allocation decisions, sometimes in less than five minutes. I was wondering exactly which data gave you confidence in your decision.

BUFFETT: Well, that's 50 years of preparation and five (minutes) of decision making. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Can you just look at the spreadsheet? Can you look at an annual report and make a decision like that?

BUFFETT: Yeah. Sometimes I can. Just take Coca-Cola, for example. I sampled the product for 60 years and then I saw a couple of key ingredients, you know, that essentially tipped the scale in terms of buying it back in 1988. But the good big decisions, they don't take any time at all. If they take time, you're in trouble.

BECKY: All right. We will have more with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, when we come right back.

BECKY: All right. Welcome back, everybody. Gentlemen, last question today. If America was a stock, would you buy it? Bill.

GATES: You bet.

BECKY: Warren.

BUFFETT: On margin. [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: Gentlemen, we want to thank you very much for your time. You've been wonderful. Bill, Warren, we really appreciate it. Let's give them a big round of applause, guys. [APPLAUSE] And we want to thank all of you, too. Columbia University, the Business School, Dean Hubbard, thank you, guys. We really appreciate it. It's been fantastic. That does it for us today. I'm Becky Quick, and if you want to watch this, you can go to CNBC.com and we will see you back here very soon.

星期六, 11月 14, 2009

The next step of market...

Dear all :

Now put an end to the prosperity , if the next 3 to 6 months are not as straightforward as you set 10% to 15% of the stockmarket fluctuations , but down the collapse and spark deflation .

Where you are to go ? The Market will be down 50% to 70% again . Keep your cash in your hand ! The Great Crush show time !

星期五, 11月 13, 2009

中國研究人員呼籲政府支持綠色汽車的購買


中國研究人員呼籲政府支持綠色汽車的購買


中國國務院發展研究中心(Development Research Center of the State Council)研究員陳清泰週四稱﹐若要成功推進綠色汽車的商業化﹐則政府需要向購買比亞迪F3DM充電式混合動力車等環保車型的消費者提供激勵措施。



比亞迪F3DM充電式混合動力車由比亞迪股份有限公司(BYD Co., 1211.HK, 簡稱﹕比亞迪股份)生產。

陳清泰稱﹐這款汽車的售價要比傳統的汽油動力車高出一倍。

他稱﹐一般消費者無法承受這麼高的價格﹐只能由企業和政府批量採購。

他還稱﹐政府需要採取降低綠色汽車購置稅和提供購買補貼等刺激措施﹐以支持充電式汽車的商業化。

比亞迪主席王傳福9月份曾敦促政府為私人購買新能源汽車提供補貼。他警告說﹐由於目前的成本居高不下﹐繼續缺乏政府的扶持可能沉重打擊純電動轎車和充電式混合動力車。

由此可知﹐比亞迪的純電動轎車和充電式混合動力車﹐必需在中國政府提供補貼下﹐才有可能實現銷售業績。這對巴菲特的投資哲學﹐將是一大考驗難題。

星期四, 11月 12, 2009

為何台灣電價逐步上漲? 神華前任董事長陳必亭 賣煤到台灣讓他很得意


陳必亭 神華前任董事長賣煤到台灣讓他很得意

中國最大煤炭生產商和銷售商、世界第二大煤炭上市公司——中國神華前任董事長陳必亭在位期間,利用全球原材料迎接大多頭機會,將中國神華的事業推向巔峰,然而,之後神華股價猛跌,陳必亭也因“年齡因素”去職,他上台時的無限風光與下台後的黯淡,恰成明顯對比。
中國神華上市當天上漲87.35%,從當天的盤面看,盤中10萬股以上的買單層出不窮,之後三天,中國神華股價強勢猛攻,其本益比更被推升到了100倍。

當時中國神華的股價上沖到94.88元人民幣,一度被大陸股友們認為有實力挑戰百元大關,成為“百元俱樂部”的成員之一。可惜的是,神華回歸中國大陸上市的時間,正是美國次級房貸爆發,全球市場進入反轉的關鍵點。此後,中國神華股價陷入了漫長的下跌道路。

2008年上半年,受到次貸危機持續深化的影響,全球原材料價格大跌,影響神華獲利,也繼續拖累其股價。於是這一年多來,中國神華的股價就如山坡上的雪球一樣往下滑,價格腰斬再腰斬,一度每股只剩15元左右,情況淒慘。

去年12月底,中國神華對外宣布陳必亭因“年齡因素”,卸下集團董事長職務。儘管外界對陳必亭的去職議論紛紛,認為“年齡”只是託辭,真正原因還在於神華股價暴跌與企業內部因素。不過,面對外界猜測,陳必亭倒沒多做解釋,他選擇的是一條低調之路,靜靜地從大眾和媒體的視野離開。

卸下中國神華董事長職位還不到幾個月的陳必亭,如今仍具有中國全國政協委員的身份,只是與卸任前媒體競逐的情況相比,如今的陳必亭看來更像個安享退休生活的學者。不改的是他低調謹慎的作風,唯有在聊起中國煤炭業的發展,甚至是賣煤到台灣的時候,嚴肅的他才略有笑意。

不久前剛結束的中國第十一屆全國政協二次會議,在進行政協委員小組討論時,一名老人卻安靜坐在後排,任憑前座發言者口沫橫飛,這名老人低頭看自己帶來的書,他就是曾叱吒風雲的中國神華前任董事長陳必亭。

聊起近期中國神華在他卸任前的海外收購計劃,今年63歲的陳必亭表示,目前中國神華仍在積極進行海外收購,已分別向澳洲與印度尼西亞受購產量20億噸與30億噸的煤礦,並與外蒙古進行焦煤開採合作(合資公司由神華控股)。同時,中國神華也正在整合山西、內蒙、寧夏等地的私有小煤礦。

他透露,受到金融海嘯與全球經濟衰退影響,國際煤價暴跌,神華集團有意趁此機會收購海外煤炭資源,以供應中國大陸沿海省市和東、北亞地區。陳必亭認為,未來一段時間內,煤炭價格將保持相對穩定,不會如同石油價格忽起忽落。

神華的煤炭甚至在大約十年前也賣到了台灣,向神華購買煤炭的包括台塑與台電這些知名企業,神華每年總計要賣給台灣1000萬噸的煤炭。

陳必亭笑著說:“去年我們(神華)1噸煤炭以108美元的價格賣到台灣,這可是個好價格,今年神華還會賣煤給台塑和台電。”

巴菲特Berkshire Hathaway公司2009的年會記錄中英文

巴菲特Berkshire Hathaway公司2009的年會記錄中英文

1983牛市捲土重來﹖

1983牛市捲土重來﹖
現在的情形開始有點像1983年:股市在飆升﹐失業率突破10%﹐科幻電視連續劇《V星入侵》又上演了。

股市投資者不由得期待1983年重演。這一年﹐正是一場歷時18年的大牛市的開端。
目前為止﹐股市行情很像八十年代早期。1982年8月到1983年10月﹐標準普爾500指數大漲69%。今年3月9日以來﹐該指數躍升58%。兩個時代都經歷了深度衰退﹐而在深度衰退過後﹐股市往往都會快速反彈。
可惜的是﹐其他相似之處很少。
現在市場的估值已經遠不像當時那麼低。八十年代的牛市開始的時候﹐標普500指數往績市盈率不到7倍。即使在上漲69%過後﹐其市盈率也僅僅達到10倍。
最近的這一輪上漲行情開始的時候﹐本益比為13倍﹐現在已經膨脹到接近19倍﹐而其長期平均水平為16倍。
失業率頭一次達到10.2%是在1983年4月﹐當時已經在準備下降了。而現在看來﹐未來幾個月失業率可能還要保持漲勢。
另外﹐1980年代牛市開始的時候﹐美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的基準利率為11%﹐這意味著它只要下調利率﹐就能夠再次提振市場。而在今天﹐聯邦基金目標利率處在接近於零的水平。
當時美國的嬰兒潮一代正處在掙錢能力和消費能力都最高的時候﹐現在這些人已經損失了數萬億美元的淨資產﹐退休金與醫療福利也都不確定。
1983年的時候﹐美國消費者一輪為期20年的負債積累還沒有開始。當時的家庭負債佔可支配收入的62%﹐這是自六十年代就一直保持的水平。
現在這一比率是122%﹐這還是在過去兩年債務增長停滯的情況下。
現在的監管與稅收前景或許也跟1983年不同。歷史證明﹐如果提高稅收、嚴格監管﹐市場能夠承受﹐但華爾街各公司會痛苦不已。
Miller Tabak首席經濟策略師格林豪斯(Dan Greenhaus)上週五告訴客戶說﹐通脹率在上升﹐失業率在上升﹐稅收在增加﹐監管在加強﹐而債務在下降﹐1983年可不是這等情形。
1980's放鬆金融管制﹐造成金融業無限放大槓桿操作﹐導致今日金融危機。
美國債務比率高達350%以上(見圖示)﹐且未來幾年都會逐步攀高。唯有去槓桿操作﹐預估2012年即回歸到1980's的水準﹐才是真正的股市底部。

星期一, 11月 09, 2009

BRK's Biggest Stock Holdings :

BRK's Biggest Stock Holdings :

1. Coca Cola (KO)
Holding Value: $10.63 billion
Shares: 200,000,000
Stake in Company: 8.63%

2. Wells Fargo (WFC)
Holding Value: $8.39 billion
Shares: 302,609,212
Stake in Company: 6.48%

3. Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)
Holding Value: $7.45 billion*
Shares: 76,777,029
Stake in Company: 22.58%
*On 11/3/09, Berkshire Hathaway announced plans to purchase the entirety of BNI for $26 billion, bringing BRK's stake in the company to 100%, valuing the company at $34 billion.
The transaction is valued at $26 billion, that values the entire company, including the stake Berkshire already owns, at $34 billion.

4. Procter & Gamble (PG)
Holding Value: $5.64 billion
Shares: 96,316,010
Stake in Company: 3.3%

5. American Express Co. (AXP)
Holding Value: $5.46 billion
Shares: 151,610,700
Stake in Company: 12.75%

6. Kraft Foods (KFT)
Holding Value: $3.80 billion
Shares: 138,272,500
Stake in Company: 9.37%

7. ConocoPhillips (COP)
Holding Value: $3.27 billion
Shares: 64,485,759
Stake in Company: 4.35%

8. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Holding Value: $2.17 billion
Shares: 36,914,633
Stake in Company: 1.34%

9. Wesco Financial Corp (WSC)
Holding Value: $1.86 billion
Shares: 5,703,087
Stake in Company: 80.1%

10. US Bancorp (USB)
Holding Value: $1.62 billion
Shares: 69,039,426
Stake in Company: 3.61%

11. Wal-Mart (WMT)
Holding Value: $994.82 million
Shares: 19,944,300
Stake in Company: 0.51%

12. Moody’s (MCO)
Holding Value: $876.68 million
Shares: 38,066,685
Stake in Company: 16.11%

13. Washington Post (WPO)
Holding Value: $738.15 million
Shares: 1,727,765
Stake in Company: 18.38%

14. Union Pacific Corp (UNP)
Holding Value: $567.84 million
Shares: 9,558,000
Stake in Company: 1.9%

15. Nike (NKE)
Holding Value: $478.55 million
Shares: 7,641,000
Stake in Company: 1.57%

股神操盤精準

股神操盤精準


受惠於投資的股票指數衍生性商品獲利激增,加上今年風災未如去年嚴重,旗下保險業務理賠壓力減輕,股神巴菲特執掌的柏克夏海瑟威投資公司上周五宣布,第三季淨利較去年同期多出2倍。



據柏克夏海瑟威公發布的第三季業績,淨利32億美元或每股盈餘2,087美元,是去年同期11億美元或每股盈餘682美元的3倍。

 但柏克夏上周二宣布以263億美元收購美國第二大鐵路營運商伯靈頓北聖大菲(BNSF),並未列在這份最新財報內。

 柏克夏第三季獲利暴漲,主要與投資的衍生性商品未實現盈餘達11億美元有關,當中部份來自信用違約,部分來自股市的貢獻。去年第三季,柏克夏投資的衍生性商品出現未實現損失8.19億美元。

 若排除投資及衍生性商品盈餘不計,柏克夏海瑟威第三季的營運獲利為20.6億美元或每股1,325美元,與去年同期的20.7億美元或每股1,335美元幾近持平。不過仍優於湯瑪遜路透訪調分析師後的每股獲利1,308.25美元預估。

柏克夏海瑟威投資衍生性商品,一直是一種未爆彈。我直覺認為,巴非特先生錯估高盛的用心,將來定會招受相關極大損失,只是目前暫時風平浪盡。(巴非特先生不知能否遇見?)

星期六, 11月 07, 2009

巴菲特重金豪賭鐵路巨頭


巴菲特重金豪賭鐵路巨頭




沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)稱,他以340億美元購買鐵路巨頭Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.(NYSE : BNI)剩餘股份的做法屬於“對美國經濟下的賭注。”

那麼這家鐵路公司如何成為了美國經濟的體現呢?

以下是Burlington Northern和美國鐵路業的大體情況。這種古老的運輸形式近年來一直在不斷走向現代化,火車的效率提高了,員工減少了,利潤率也上升了。

該行業也將自己宣傳為擁堵過時的公路系統更環保的替代品。這項交易的一切都是大手筆,從價格(巴菲特有史以來最大的)到該公司業務的規模。

鐵路占美國貨運總量的43%。

Burlington Northern共有32,000英里鐵路,是美國東西部距離的10倍以上。平均而言,該公司同時可運送22萬節車廂的貨物。



公司歷史:Burlington Northern是過去150年間合併或併購的390條不同鐵路線的產物。

員工總數:40,000人。

該公司是煤炭和穀物的最大鐵路運輸商。 Burlington Northern每年運輸的煤炭足夠美國10%的家庭使用,運輸的穀物相當於9億人一年的口糧。

增長領域:將煤炭從懷俄明州和蒙大拿州的波德河盆地運往西部港口,由此通過船隻運到中國。

另一個增長領域是Burlington Northern的聯運能力,即將由卡車運送的集裝箱通過火車運到港口裝船。隨著卡車運輸成本的上升,分析師預計Burlington Northern的聯運量將會上升。 (該行業的2006年的聯運量比2002年增長了6.5%)。

展望:鐵路業有望從卡車運輸業搶走更多的業務。據Burlington Northern的網站稱,鐵路的燃料消耗量僅是卡車的五分之一。該公司說,美國的鐵路運送了全國40%的貨物,但僅佔與運輸有關的溫室氣體排放量的2.2%。在國會討論如何改善全國的基礎設施之際,這有助於增加鐵路業的籌碼。

其它有趣的事實:Burlington Northern向紐約、芝加哥和洛杉磯的居民運輸了大量的罐裝飲料,足夠他們每人1年內每天喝一罐飲料。它運輸的白糖也足夠每年烤300多萬爐甜點。

但真正促使他投資的原因就是:巴菲特持續地收藏他小時候的願望。因為他是火車迷,就乾脆收購火車公司。

在他的投資中,100%都是他小時候或第一次接觸的最愛 。

星期五, 11月 06, 2009

洋基封王 美股有望飆漲?

洋基封王 美股有望飆漲?     http://chinagroup.myweb.hinet.net/


紐約洋基棒球隊(Yankees)登上世界大賽(World Series)冠軍寶座,除了球團老闆和球迷歡欣鼓舞外,華爾街也該額手稱慶,理由不僅是同鄉情誼,還因為運動同步指標顯示,美股在洋基稱冠的次年漲幅特別大。

根據數據統計業者標普資本IQ公司分析,洋基每次封王,隔年美股年報酬率平均達兩位數,反之洋基敗北時,美股隔年跌得慘兮兮。

標普公司信用、市場及風險部門主管彼德森指出,自1936年起,洋基在22場世界大賽中奪得勝利,次年標普500指數的年報酬率平均達10%。而洋基在世界大賽敗北的次年,股市平均下跌達13%。

彼德森的研究同時顯示,如果世界大賽像4日一樣在六場比賽內分出高下,次年股市平均報酬率是15%,但若第七場才定勝負,平均報酬率則減至8%。

不過,即使今年是費城人隊(Phillies)贏得世界大賽,也未必是股市下跌的凶兆。費城人在1980及2008年兩度稱王,股市隔年平均上漲6%。只是費城人輸球時,股市表現更佳,平均大漲11%。

還要考慮一點:當由費城人隊等國聯球隊(National League)奪得世界大賽冠軍,而非美聯球隊(American League)勝出時,股市表現較佳。根據國聯球隊自1936年來贏得的30場比賽來看,次年股市平均上漲15%,遠優於美聯球隊贏得的43場比賽,次年股市平均只上漲9%。

有趣的是,美股兩個月內的短線走勢略有不同。根據彭博資訊統計,自1928年開始有標普500以來,在洋基十度與世界大賽冠軍頭銜擦身而過的年份,11月和12月的美股平均報酬率卻達3%,勝過洋基24次奪冠時的上漲2.16%,也優於洋基未進入世界大賽時美股僅上漲0.9%。

換句話說,洋基進入冠軍賽卻痛失冠軍盃時,股市短線走勢最佳。

當然這些數據都屬巧合,因為正如華爾街所言,過去的績效與未來報酬高低無關。

連同今年,洋基共27次稱霸世界大賽,但1923年及1927年奪冠時,標普500指數尚未創立。